2026–27 regular season
Regression watch
Shooting percentage swings a lot over a few dozen shots and drifts back to normal. Each skater’s goals are set against what their 2023–26 shooting rate would give on this season’s shots: well above it usually cools off, well below it usually picks up.
Running hot
| Player | +/− G | G | SH% | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Vasily Podkolzin | +5.0 | 7 | 35.0 | 9.9 |
 Kirill Kaprizov | +4.6 | 8 | 40.0 | 16.8 |
 Nick Schmaltz | +2.6 | 6 | 24.0 | 13.6 |
 Kyle Connor | +2.5 | 7 | 23.3 | 15.0 |
 Andrei Svechnikov | +2.4 | 6 | 22.2 | 13.3 |
| Sebastian Aho | +2.0 | 6 | 22.2 | 14.9 |
 Nathan MacKinnon | +1.8 | 5 | 20.0 | 12.7 |
 William Nylander | +1.5 | 5 | 22.7 | 15.9 |
 Bo Horvat | +1.4 | 4 | 20.0 | 12.8 |
 Jack Eichel | +1.3 | 4 | 16.7 | 11.2 |
| Auston Matthews | +1.2 | 5 | 20.0 | 15.1 |
 Mason McTavish | +1.1 | 4 | 17.4 | 12.7 |
 Alex DeBrincat | +0.7 | 4 | 16.7 | 13.9 |
| Dylan Guenther | +0.4 | 4 | 16.7 | 15.0 |
| Jack Roslovic | +0.4 | 3 | 15.0 | 13.1 |
Due to score
| Player | +/− G | G | SH% | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Timo Meier | -2.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 10.9 |
| Matthew Schaefer | -2.4 | 0 | 0.0 | 10.4 |
 Pavel Dorofeyev | -2.4 | 1 | 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jackson Blake | -1.6 | 1 | 4.8 | 12.3 |
| Matt Boldy | -1.5 | 2 | 7.4 | 13.0 |
 David Pastrnak | -1.3 | 2 | 7.4 | 12.4 |
| Mitch Marner | -1.3 | 2 | 9.5 | 15.5 |
 Owen Tippett | -1.2 | 1 | 5.0 | 10.9 |
 Anton Lundell | -1.1 | 1 | 5.0 | 10.4 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | -1.1 | 1 | 5.0 | 10.5 |
| Leon Draisaitl | -0.8 | 4 | 16.7 | 19.9 |
| Jack Hughes | -0.8 | 2 | 8.0 | 11.1 |
 Jared McCann | -0.8 | 2 | 9.5 | 13.3 |
 Mikael Backlund | -0.7 | 1 | 4.8 | 8.2 |
 Tage Thompson | -0.6 | 4 | 12.9 | 14.9 |
Team luck (PDO)
| EDM | 17.3 | 95.0 | 1.123 |
| BOS | 13.5 | 95.6 | 1.091 |
 DAL | 11.6 | 96.3 | 1.080 |
| SEA | 14.4 | 92.7 | 1.071 |
| NYI | 12.5 | 94.0 | 1.065 |
| NYR | 12.5 | 93.3 | 1.058 |
| COL | 16.4 | 89.2 | 1.056 |
| VGK | 9.9 | 92.3 | 1.022 |
 OTT | 10.8 | 91.1 | 1.019 |
 WSH | 12.2 | 89.6 | 1.018 |
 PIT | 11.5 | 89.5 | 1.010 |
| WPG | 10.6 | 90.1 | 1.007 |
| CAR | 10.7 | 89.7 | 1.004 |
 TBL | 9.2 | 90.6 | 0.998 |
 CBJ | 9.7 | 89.9 | 0.996 |
| UTA | 8.8 | 90.3 | 0.991 |
 CHI | 10.3 | 88.6 | 0.989 |
| DET | 7.9 | 90.6 | 0.986 |
 VAN | 8.3 | 89.7 | 0.980 |
 NSH | 7.1 | 90.8 | 0.980 |
| MIN | 7.3 | 90.5 | 0.978 |
| STL | 11.0 | 86.6 | 0.976 |
| FLA | 7.1 | 90.5 | 0.976 |
| BUF | 9.2 | 88.0 | 0.972 |
| TOR | 10.5 | 86.3 | 0.967 |
 MTL | 8.3 | 87.7 | 0.960 |
 ANA | 6.3 | 89.6 | 0.959 |
| PHI | 5.3 | 90.5 | 0.957 |
 LAK | 4.7 | 91.0 | 0.957 |
| CGY | 6.3 | 86.1 | 0.923 |
| NJD | 5.1 | 87.0 | 0.921 |
 SJS | 7.2 | 83.8 | 0.910 |
5-on-5. PDO is shooting % plus save %; it averages 1.000 and teams far from it usually drift back. Compare GF% (actual goal share) with xGF% (share by shot quality).
Baseline: regular-season goals and shots over 2023–26, at least 100 shots. Only skaters with 20+ shots this season are listed. See full stats for every skater.